The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will win the 2024 general elections.
In a report, the EIU stated that the NDC will win if it presents a new Flagbearer for the election.
The NDC lost the 2016 and 2020 elections with former President John Mahama as flag bearer.
“The next parliamentary and presidential elections are due in 2024. Under the constitutionally mandated term limits, Mr Akufo-Addo cannot run for a third term,” the report stated.
It added that, “Mr Mahama is reportedly considering whether to run again but we expect the NDC to seek to revitalise its prospects with a fresh candidate.
The EIU also stated that after two terms of the NPP government, the NDC is expected to win the 2024 presidential election and to gain a small majority in parliament.
The report noted: “In the 2020 parliamentary election, the NPP and the NDC each won 137 seats, but in January the one independent Member of Parliament (MP) announced that he would co-operate with the NPP, giving it the 138 seats needed for an effective majority. With a razor-thin majority, the Akufo-Addo administration will require all of its MPs to vote with the party in order to push through signature policies, which is likely to necessitate deal-making to persuade MPs, which stands to obstruct immediate policy priorities, such as reducing a large fiscal overhang through expenditure cuts and tax rises”.
Ghana’s debt stock
The EIU noted the “Economic structure risk remains CCC-rated” when it reported on Ghana’s debt stock.
“The current-account deficit, which is estimated to have averaged 2.8% of GDP over the past 48 months, is a drag on the score,” it added.
Meanwhile, EIU noted that the country is currently estimated to be in default, following a rise in principal arrears owed to external official creditors in 2018.
“Arrears will remain substantial, raising the perceived risk of a prolonged default among investors. Regarding the structure of the national accounts, the services sector is thelargest sector of the economy, accounting for about 45% of GDP”it added.